FT writes that Kosovo's hopes for independence fall hostage to rivalry between big powers.  While Putin hints unequivocally that Russia is ready to apply Kosovo independence as a precedent to South Ossetia and Abkhazia conflict resolution Russia may not have finally decided how it will vote at the UN.

"That depends on the overall status of the US-Russia relationship, the results of World Trade Organisation negotiations and the forthcoming meetings in November between Presidents Bush and Putin, first in Moscow and then in Hanoi," he [Dimitri Simes, head of the Nixon Center think-tank which has close contact with Moscow] said .

But he warned that it might be difficult for Mr Putin to back down over Kosovo. "The Russian leadership, including President Putin personally, is making it increasingly clear to the Bush administration that Georgia is becoming a defining issue in the US-Russia relationship the way Iran and North Korea are on the American side."

Glen Howard, president of the Jamestown Foundation security think-tank, said Mr Putin had "let the genie out of the bottle with nationalism" and warned of the dangers posed by a Russia seeking to regain its Soviet-era domination of the Caucasus and its strategic oil and gas pipelines.

Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, kept making concessions only for Russia to keep "upping the ante", Mr Howard said. It was possible the Bush administration would seek to delay Kosovo's bid for independence and Georgia's bid for Nato membership to keep Russia on board over Iran and North Korea, he added.

While the war of words continues between Georgian and Russian presidents it seems that something big is steering up around Georgia.  The rhetoric on both sides of Caucasus can be a sign of major "bulldogs under carpet" exercise going on and the outcome of it we're about to learn in the nearest future is to define Georgia's fate for some years to come.

Cross-posted to georgia_ge